October 15 is Health Care's High Noon

by Tim Foley

Published April 25, 2009 @ 02:38PM PT

Since the House and Senate passed different budget resolutions before breaking for their April recess, job one since they've returned has been to reconcile the two resolutions.  The biggest controversy has been whether future health care reform would be allowed to use the rules of “budget reconciliation,” allowing the legislation to pass the Senate with a simple majority instead of 60 votes.  The news yesterday is that the Senate has agreed to a deal to allow the budget reconciliation process if they haven’t passed a bill by October 15 of this year.  That Thursday now looms as health care’s High Noon – and the president has a gun to the opposition’s knife.

When I last wrote about this topic, I translated the underlying sentiment of budget reconciliation as “When it comes to health care reform we can either work with you or run you right over.”  The House has enough of a Democratic majority that they can – and have already – passed legislation without a single Republican vote.  The Senate has traditionally been the spoiler of reform efforts, largely because of the filibuster.  This isn’t the dramatic, romantic filibuster of one man against the world as portrayed in Mr. Smith Goes to Washington and that episode of The West Wing where C.J.’s writing a letter to her dad.  This is the minority party filing a procedural motion requiring 60 votes to cut off debate and move to a vote on the measure, and then basically running out the clock unless they get what they want.  Democrats are one vote shy (presuming Franken is inevitably seated) and a handful of votes shaky, depending on how long it’s been since Evan Bayh was last on TV.   But under budget reconciliation rules, the Senate only needs a majority to pass legislation - no filibusters allowed.  That’s the “run you right over” part.

The Obama Administration and Senate Democrats have consistently passed on taking reconciliation off the table – as well they shouldn’t, as Republicans used the same procedural tactic to pass the Bush tax cuts and many other pieces of legislation that they couldn’t get past the Senate.  But they also haven’t aggressively pushed it.  Obviously, for something like health care, you want to have a reasonable debate, not a steam-roller.  But that’s why setting a date certain in the future is such a good idea.  Senators Baucus and Kennedy have said they want the bill done this summer.  Congressman Waxman in the House agrees.  If we get to October 15, it’s because we’re already at an impasse.  More to the point, Republicans in Congress could simply have done what the Senate always does when the minority doesn’t like whatever reform is being pushed out – run out the clock.  That’s essentially what they did during the Clinton health care reform efforts – oppose and delay, oppose and delay while the tenuous-at-best collection of lawmakers who might have supported Clinton’s bill collapsed.  Now running out the clock has the opposite effect – it will actually increase the chances that health care reform will pass, despite their objections.  They can come to the table and try to shape a bill they can live with, or they can get run over.

It’s not an exaggeration to say the whole dynamic of the legislative process changes accordingly.  It’s still going to be a fight, but it looks like a fight where the wind is at reformers’ backs.  Ezra Klein says, “Everything I've heard suggested that this was an executive branch priority. Without steady pressure from the president, reconciliation would likely have been traded away long ago.”  With this political maneuver, two important things have been confirmed about President Obama.  One, he was deadly serious when he said “Health care cannot wait, it must not wait, and it will not wait another year.”  Two, he’s clearly learned, “He pulls a knife, you pull a gun… that’s the Chicago way.”

(Photo credit:  toastforbrekkie on Flickr.)