Health Care

Why Squeezing Health Care Reform Down to $1 Trillion Is a Bad Idea

Published June 29, 2009 @ 05:03PM PT

It's a completely arbitrary benchmark, one that's important only because some Senators think it is and because the mainstream media agrees.  Sen. Max Baucus and others, spooked by an incomplete CBO score on an incomplete Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions bill which Republican Senators jumped all over, are hell-bent on keeping the Senate Finance Committee bill to $1 trillion dollars.  It's certainly a big, round number.  The question is, does squeezing the cost out of health care reform so recklessly mean we're dooming the bill to failure?

Keep in mind the following as we muddle through towards an answer.  One, this has nothing to do with the public health insurance option.  The version we're most likely to get is a "self-sustaining" model which supports itself with premiums and avails itself of the same federal subsidies given to private insurance in the National Health Exchange.  That means none of the price-tag for health care reform is related to having a public health insurance option.  We're paying subsidies to private insurance alone in the Exchange if the public health insurance option doesn't exist [edited based on reader's comment].  Two, $1 trillion over 10 years is $100 billion a year - or about 6% of the health care spending in the country in 2008.  Three, health care follows the Pay-Go rules:  every last red cent has to be paid for in spending cuts or new revenue.  Fourth, $100 billion would be a bargain - Obama's campaign plan was estimated to cost between $75 billion and $125 billion.  What we get out of Congress will be more robust than that.  And finally, let's keep in mind that for all the conservative bellyaching right now about how we can't afford to spend so much during our current budget situation, keep in mind a conservative president and Congress pushed through Medicare Part D in 2003 for the price tag of just under a trillion dollars over that same 10 year period.  (Hey kettle, this is the pot.  You're black!)

(By the way, the real lesson from the CBO score of the HELP bill appears to be "If you leave out the public health insurance option and employer pay-or-play, as well as any ability to fund reform, it's going to be pretty ineffective."  There needs no ghost come from the grave, my lord, to tell us this!)

So with this in mind, why is $1 trillion the threshold for Baucus et al.?  Pretty much the same reason why the year 2000 seemed to freak all the non-computer geeks out:  to wit, absolutely no damn reason.

It's not based on results or what would actually get the job done.  It's not based on saving money down the road, that spending $1 on prevention and primary care now to save $10 down the road somehow magically stops working at $1 trillion.  It's not based on what it would cost to give every American access to comprehensive benefits, and it's not based on making sure health care reform is affordable.  How do I know?  Because that's what they've cut to get it to $1 trillion! The same Politico article that quoted Sen. Kent Conrad saying, "Everybody who heard these numbers this morning had smiles on their faces" on the day that the Finance Committee announced it had found $600 billion to cut from the bill also quotes him on where they're cutting from:  "$400 billion in savings... largely by reducing the amount of subsidies for low-income individuals to buy insurance" and "additional $200 billion in savings by further adjusting the level of subsidies. It is unclear, however, whether they would reduce the amount of each subsidy or lower the income level at which people become eligible."

The New York Times is even more explicit:  "Assistance would originally have been available to people with incomes up to 400 percent of the poverty level ($88,200 for a family of four). Democrats have lowered the ceiling to 300 percent of the poverty level ($66,150 for a family of four)."  For comparison, 300% is the subsidy level for the Massachusetts plan - the same Massachusetts plan that has to exempt 15% of families above 300% each year from the penalties of its health insurance mandate because there are literally no affordable options for them.

Let's make one thing clear - health care reform is about providing quality, affordable health care for all.  But if you're cutting the subsidies, you're cutting what makes the plan affordable.  And if you're cutting what makes the plan affordable, you are summarily giving up on even coming close to "all."  And if you're also cutting the expansion of Medicaid, as one of the proposals calls for, you're simultaneously squeezing from the top and the bottom.  That doesn't work for toothpaste.  It'd be even messier in health care reform.

(Photo credit:  Fuzzy Gerdes on Flickr.)

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Comments (7)

  1. robin stelly

    It's the same problem we saw with the stimulus and what we are seeing with the co-op ideas.   As Howard Dean said, those things solve problems in the Senate but they don't solve problems in America.

    I think this sentence needs to be edited:

      We're paying subsidies to private insurance alone in the Exchange if the public health insurance option. 

    Posted by robin stelly on 06/30/2009 @ 06:15AM PT

  2. Harold Lewis

    First thing we have to do is toss out all federal poverty guidelines. They're worthless. AK and HI get regionally adjusted thresholds. The rest of us in the lower 48 get one level. Excuse me, but a family in the NY Metro area is impoverished at a higher income level than one in Lincoln, NE. Throw in the $.65 we in Jersey get back on our fed tax dollars so the folks in MS can get $2.00 for every one and tell us how our property taxes are too high and the disparities become more evident. 

    Using these guidelines to means test any aid is pointless. We all need healthcare, each of us and our families, to varying degrees. Whatever it costs, we need to pay for it. So, lets put the actual costs, cleansed of profit, on the table and figure out a fair markup for all services.

    Cutting insurance companies out of the mix and shifting all of our public and private premiums to a single pool for direct disbursement will conservatively yield a 20% savings. Next, put an end to hospital and pharmaceutical advertising and marketing. Reduce them to the functionaries that they should be. Tell pharma that the value of all research funding derived from tax deductible charities, public universities, outside firms, and government agencies needs to come off the pricing. Let them pay a non-recoverable license fee for every drug they want to market.

    These are my opinions and may be bad ideas but Congress should be about recovering costs from the suppliers, not the people. I'll bet we could publicly fund a universal care with money we're already paying out and reduce healthcare costs by at least 30% to 40% before tackling medical practice, defensive medicine, overuse of specialists, overmedication, dental costs, and poor allocation of resources.

     

    Posted by Harold Lewis on 06/30/2009 @ 10:33AM PT

  3. Carla Rautenberg

    I'm with you, Harold. You're talking about actual reform. Ninety-nine percent of the health care "conversation" in Washington is just B-S. 

    Posted by Carla Rautenberg on 06/30/2009 @ 04:13PM PT

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  5. Mike Oliphant

    I advise on several health insurance boards such as [NOTE -- comment originally included a number of links to sites offering quotes on health insurance.  To avoid appearances of spam, these have been removed.  No other sentence in this comment was altered.]  I often quote the Switzerland health care system as an example of tough questions that we as a nation will have to answer someday, if we go down the path of nationalized government health care plan.  We’ll have to at some point draw the line in the sand and refuse further care for patients receiving critical illness treatments, intensive care unit, trauma care, acute management services, disease management, neonatal intensive-care unit for newborns and  seniors in extended care treatment nearing hospice stage .  Did you know that premature babies are not resuscitated upon birth if they cannot draw breath in Switzerland? Did you also know that holds true with “senior care” experiencing system failure or multiple organ failures requiring support? Another example, they don't extend the life of a senior via medical equipment such as intubation or respiration for multiple organ failures.  Not to be morbid….they are unplugged and allowed to pass.  Anyone in the business of paying claims knows that the single most expensive bill in what carriers call “shock loss” is within NICU for newborns and seniors in acute / intensive care / hospital in the last three months of life.

    The Swiss apparently made decisions made based upon cost vs. quality outcome. Are we as a nation prepared to make that type of decision or to define when to incubate, resuscitate a newborn or a senior?  Are we ready to define the conditions and rules of medical procedures with organ failure?  With a litigious society I think not.  This is why we need TORT REFORM.  Without TORT REFORM medical provider costs will never drop. Liability costs with medical providers are nearly half of operating expenses.  Humana health plans state that their costs of medical liability and defensive medicine accounts for nearly 10 cents out of every premium dollar collected.  Compare that to Humana’s reported pharmaceutical claims of 15 cents out of every premium dollar collected.  Or better yet, 21 cents out of every premium dollar collected is paid back to physicians for physician treatments.  The cost of litigation is only obvious with Humana health plans. I sit on the board with several other health insurance carriers. Their books all show similar costs.  They basically insure a shrinking populace that is mostly made up of people that only buy insurance because they need it. So is mandatory participation such a bad idea?

    I don't think we are hearing about TORT REFORM because most of the house and senate on the federal level are lawyers and have practicing law firm interest’s. In the healthcare system there is no total innocence. We hear about insurance executives with bonuses, doctors overbilling, hospitals overbilling because the street gang thug got dropped at their ER door with no insurance.  The lawyers are there to stir the pot and promise lavish fortune at the end of the PERCEIVED misery chain.  Am I saying we don’t need them? No, but I am saying there is clear and documented abuse of the legal system that awards outlandish claims in the millions for a questionable mistake.  Are ambulance chasers not sociably recognized as being the most abusive?  What about those that educate their clients on defraud and then use the legal system to pirate insurers?

    I sure wouldn’t want to be on the receiving end of these serious decisions that we will have to make. My senator claims that the government would be held blameless but what about the medical provider that has to make the call?  What about the insurance payer that has to deny continued care for an infant that will not survive?  Without serious TORT REFORM we aren’t going to get costs down or have good people make headway.

    Posted by Mike Oliphant on 06/30/2009 @ 02:19PM PT

  6. Timothy Foley

    Care to explain why Texas, with the most serious TORT REFORM cap in the country, continues to experience high health care costs, medical liability premiums that continue to rise, and has seen state averages for premiums rise 87 percent from 2000-2007?

    As much as I love a good conspiracy theory about the power of lawyers, I'd love some actual proof that this will reduce costs even better.

    Posted by Timothy Foley on 06/30/2009 @ 03:34PM PT

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  7. Martin Bring

    So Humana pays out 46 cents of every dollar collected? What happens to the other 54 cents?

    Posted by Martin Bring on 06/30/2009 @ 06:02PM PT

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  8. Harold Lewis

    The right of the injured to sue and collect damages from those responsible is one of most precious and fundamental civil rights. I don't care about other countries' approach to civil rights. This is a wonderful benefit of our republic and our solution to medical care will fit our democracy. Citing a civil right as a price for reform is absurd. This debate is about the fight for our right to healthcare not about curbing other rights.

    Medical torts cost <2% of our total medical costs and that includes insurance admin, overhead and profit. Take those costs out and this is a very small target. I do not believe, however, that the evaluations of these costs include the premiums paid for liability insurance. Did you notice I mentioned "insurance" twice? The insurance companies are using liability premiums to offset some portion of the medical benefits paid out. Let's get insurance out of our business.

    As to the tough decisions, we need to have the dialog once we determine that we have the right to care. As children, we mature from "I want" to "I need". As citizens, spouses, caregivers, and responsible adults, we mature to "we need" with some verging on the saintly "you need". To base our laws and system on "I want/ don't want" or only the hard marginal cases makes no sense.

    It is true that these cases in NICU and extreme measures to delay death cost us dearly. We need to take apart these costs and find out what drives them, not simply accept what they are. Instead of taking what's dished out, we need to define what we want in the dish.

    Many of us have already made the decision not to burden our families and friends with wondering what to do and how far to go. You see, it's thinking about our roles in family and society, thinking as an ethical, moral, and just adult, not about what "I sure wouldn't want...", as you put it. Forgive me for being personal, but the "finders keepers" "I got mine" attitude that passes for citizenship needs to drop by the wayside. None of our founders would embrace this concept of juvenile individualism and we shouldn't either.

    Posted by Harold Lewis on 07/01/2009 @ 07:18AM PT

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Timothy Foley

Tim has been an online organizer and blogger on health care policy for the Obama for America campaign (during the primaries) and currently for the Committee of Interns and Residents/SEIU Healthcare, a labor union for intern and resident doctors. Views expressed here are Tim's, and don't represent the positions of CIR or SEIU.

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